Hui Li
San Francisco State University
1. Introduction
The statistic of lodging terms in United State is adjusted when we exampled it for comparison. For the circumstance that the seasonal worker upshot would make house price assorted, and which is not actual change. So it is rational to separate the seasonal effect from the actual lodging price changing.
This paper aimed to examine how housing price would be affected by while and seasonal component. And by using time series to analyse, I build out that the housing price was related to time and different season would have different effect on housing price.
2. The data
The data of this paper comes from the web site of U.S. Census Bureau. I choose the monthly data of average housing gross revenue price (dollars), for the period between January 2001 to December 2010. There are 120 observations for 10 years. And the observing region is the United States. I should mention that there are two kinds of data for housing price. I used the not seasonally adjusted one, against the seasonally adjusted data, for the research for seasonal fact.
3. The model
The model would begin with patently the relationship between housing price and time. I would use the log of housing price, for the convenience seeing the percentage change.
3.1 while Trend
First, I would decide the type of time trend here. In order to do this, I did the experiments with linear time trend, quadratic equation time trend and cubic time trend. For the linear time trend, I got the simple model like this
Ln(houseprice)= 12.35+0.
002 time (1)
By examining the criteria AIC and BIC( dress), I made table-1 to show the performance of each experiment.
| | unidimensional Trend |Quadratic Trend |Cubic Trend |
|AIC | -222.4964 | -184.6793 |-168.7391 |
|SIC | -216.9214...If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com
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